Battelle & R&D Magazine will be releasing their annual report on R&D in the coming month. A recent press release on the report outlined some important findings on probable uptics in R&D next year. (*Note, this is R&D, not just the S&T that we care about. Its a much broader portfolio.)
The report stated that they expect to see a 3.6% increase in U.S. R&D. In the federal outlook which most of us care about the report predicted that
Overall, the federal government is expected to increase its total R&D spending by a considerable amount in 2005 and it will continue to provide a strong level of support for the near future.
This isn't bad news per se, but doesn't speak specifically to what they think will happen in the basic and applied areas. In fact the report finds:
the character and direction of this support will cause temporary shortfalls in some of the basic R&D needed to sustain or advance the platforms from which applied research, technical development, and eventual market development can grow.
Sounds vaguely familar somehow. The full report will be forthcoming soon and you can expect blogging on it when I have a chance to give it a fuller look. Full press release after the jump.
Press Release Source: Battelle
Vital Signs of R&D Financial Support Show Defense Spending Will Dominate Research and Development Funding in 2005
Monday January 10, 9:30 am ET
COLUMBUS, Ohio, Jan. 10 /PRNewswire/ -- Total research and development funding in the United States will increase this year by approximately 3.6 percent to $312 billion in 2005 over the $301 billion estimated for 2004, according to the Battelle-R&D Magazine annual funding forecast.
The principal driving force will be the expenditures by the federal government, estimated to increase by almost 6 percent to $98 billion over the $92 billion in 2004. This increase is primarily influenced by increases in spending by the Department of Defense (DOD). Although other federal sectors show greater percentages in increased funding, the sheer magnitude of the DOD budget will dominate the 2004-2005 shift.
Private industry will continue to be the principal funder of R&D, as it has been for the past 25 years, but the increase for 2005 is expected to be a little less than 2 percent, representing basically no change in real dollar outlay. Private industry is expected to fund $191 billion in R&D over the $187 billion estimated for 2004, continuing a trend of flat funding that has been in effect for about the past four years.
The academic and other non-profit sectors taken together will see increases of approximately 8.6 percent in total funding from the $21 billion funded in 2004 to the nearly $23 billion expected for 2005.
The forecast is based on historic patterns of the past, analyses of the planned budget of the U.S. Federal Government, other organizations' member or subscriber surveys, published literature, and wide-ranging discussions with industry and government experts.
The 2005 forecast marks the 42nd year Battelle has issued it and the 26th year it has been co-authored by Dr. Jules Duga, a senior research scientist.
"As we look toward the anticipated levels of R&D support and performance for 2005, it is important to consider some of the major factors that are either active at the present or which will surely be the precursors of megatrends in the near future," Duga said. "Perhaps more importantly, this forecast articulates the factors that influence the trends in R&D investment."
Federal Outlook
* Overall, the federal government is expected to increase its total R&D
spending by a considerable amount in 2005 and it will continue to
provide a strong level of support for the near future.
* However, the character and direction of this support will cause
temporary shortfalls in some of the basic R&D needed to sustain or
advance the platforms from which applied research, technical
development, and eventual market development can grow.
* In no small part, any perceived curtailment of basic research funds
that results from a shifting of priorities is expected to be relatively
temporary. Analysis of government-supported R&D in the past has shown
that there have been periods of special concentration -- such as in
space and energy -- that have influenced the priorities in support.
* R&D in support of national defense accounts for the major portion of
the total increase in federal expenditures, with much of this being
divided between DOD and defense-related work conducted through the
Department of Energy (DOE). The basic science programs of DOD received
an increase of about 8 percent, while basic research work with DOE,
such as in the Office of Science, has been similarly increased.
* As expected, the Department of Homeland Security will see a substantial
increase in R&D support, while increases in other high-visibility and
high-impact programs such as the National Institutes of Health and the
National Science Foundation will not enjoy as great a boost in funding.
* Of note in the area of federal and industry cooperation is the
continuing support of the Advanced Technology Program (ATP), conducted
under the aegis of the National Institute of Standards and Technology.
The ATP again has survived various attempts at termination, but is
slated to continue with a reduction in funding.
Industrial Outlook
* Industrial support of R&D, which has been essentially flat due to the
mild recession that has been in force, has not been growing
consistently at even the rate of inflation.
* Outsourcing has emerged as a complicating factor that feeds into the
analysis of past trends and will impact future activity.
* Specifically, what started as a movement toward utilizing captive
facilities located primarily in Japan and Western Europe has blossomed
into a significant increase in the support of R&D in non-captive,
independent performing institutions in developing or re-developing
countries.
* The most visible examples of this are the major increases in outsourced
R&D in China and India and the growing efforts in other parts of the
world. Such outsourcing has grown from exploratory adventures or
lower-end research to a mechanism that includes the construction and
operation of major branch offices and institutions. These offices are
in the process of performing research and development programs that are
integrated into the worldwide operations of the parent company.
Major R&D opportunities on the horizon
* Materials technologies: The development of new classes of materials
that can survive in hostile environments (such as medical implants;
deep sea; and ultra-high temperature, high radiation or highly
corrosive situations) as well as being higher strength-to-weight
replacements, as in energy saving applications.
* Medical diagnostic imaging: The expansion of techniques for rapid and
less expensive, non-invasive medical diagnostics methods, with emphasis
on obtaining and interpreting images.
* Information mining and assessment: The development and expansion of
techniques for the gathering and mining of information in a wide range
of topics, and the capacity to rapidly analyze content.
* Environment: The management of the environment including, but not
limited to, the reduction of factors that contribute to global warming.
* Energy production and distribution: Renewable and/or low-waste
production, including nuclear options, bioenergy, hydrogen, and fuel
cells.
* Medical technology: Emphasis on the development and deployment of
methods for diagnostics and therapeutics and including devices,
feedback systems, early-warning systems, and emergency response
equipment.
* Anti-terrorism technologies: Identification, isolation and
deactivation of materials, systems, devices and the like that can
produce physical, economic and psychological disruption. Also, the
development and deployment of a wider array of hardening devices or
approaches so as to minimize the impact of adverse activities.
The full report of the 2005 R&D Funding Forecast will be printed in the January issue of R&D Magazine in late January. Reprints will be available then by contacting Battelle's Jean Hayward at (614) 424-7039 or at haywardj@battelle.org.
Battelle is a global leader in science and technology. Headquartered in Columbus, Ohio, it develops and commercializes technology and manages laboratories for customers. Battelle, with the national labs that it manages or co-manages, oversees 16,000 staff members and conducts $3 billion in annual research and development. Battelle innovations include the development of the office copier machine (Xerox), pioneering work on compact disc technology, and medical technology advancements.
Source: Battelle